MENU
component-ddb-728x90-v1-01-desktop

The latest on CAT 5 Hurricane Irma

(WPMI)

A Taste of Fall... & Tracking Irma

After a mainly quiet Tuesday along the Gulf Coast, we'll see a few stray showers overnight into Wednesday morning. Then, as a "cold" front swings through our area on Wednesday, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms followed by cooler and less humid conditions. When we will really feel the change is in the mornings, with lows dipping into the 50s on Thursday and Friday morning. The last time Mobile was in the 50s was back at the end of May!

That stretch of dry weather around here will likely last into the weekend...while we watch the progress of hurricane Irma.

TROPICS:

Hurricane Irma is now a powerful category 5 storm with top sustained winds of 185 mph. That's stronger than Katrina, Andrew or Camille. Not that it will maintain that strength (it probably won't) but that should give you an idea of the force residents of the Caribbean may have to deal with. On its projected path, the northeastern islands of the Caribbean (Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, St. Nevis, St. Martin) will start to feel some impact this evening, then the waves, rain and wind will spread across Puerto Rico by late Wednesday.

The latest NHC forecast track, along with forecast models we analyze here at Local 15, show a steady track towards the southern Bahamas/north coast of Cuba in 3-4 days, and closing in on the Florida Keys this weekend. That would put the storm in a position to pose a significant threat to south Florida by late Saturday. But the big question: Will it get into the Gulf of Mexico?

As for south Alabama and Northwest Florida: It's still more than 2000 miles from Mobile so we do have more time to watch it before an anticipated turn towards the north would take the Gulf of Mexico out of play. *If* that turn doesn't happen or happens even later than we currently expect, then the Gulf is a possibility. While I think the chances of a Gulf Coast visit by Irma are pretty low at this time, there is still a chance. As long as that is the case, we'll continue to track this storm's every move and bring you the latest here on the website, on-air and on social media.

Be sure to bookmark our HURRICANE CENTER page and stay ahead of the tropics all season long.


BULLETIN

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS SOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.1N 59.8W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ANTIGUA

ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane

Warning along the north coast of the Dominican Republic from the

border with Haiti eastward to Cabo Engano. A tropical storm

warning has been issued for the south coast of the Dominican

Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border

with Haiti.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten

* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with

Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le

Mole St. Nicholas

* Turks and Caicos Islands

* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Guadeloupe

* Dominica

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the

southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as

well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida

should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was

located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 59.8 West. Irma is

moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the

west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the

next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous

core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands

tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the

northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of

Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher

gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity

are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to

remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple

of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and

large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area

near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to

reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at

the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm

conditions beginning within the next few hours. Hurricane

conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area

in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday,

with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane

conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area

in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm

conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the

watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the

southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain

accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands

except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches

Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and

St. Croix...2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations

Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20

inches

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,

isolated 15 inches

Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward

Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,

the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the

Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

Trending